MARKET REGIME

US Equity Β· NASDAQ Sectors Β· Updated 2026-10-31
β†’ Prediction
πŸ›‘ Risk-OFF
Growth vs Defensive spread
Growth
+4.0%
Defensive
+12.5%
Spread -8.4pp  Β·  threshold <βˆ’5pp  Β·  XLP↔XLK -0.434 Defensives decoupling
⚑ Risk-ON βš– Mixed πŸ›‘ Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION β€” YTD 2026
⚑ XLE Energy
+56.4%
πŸ’» XLK Technology
+24.8%
πŸ₯ XLV Healthcare
+20.4%
πŸ›’ XLP Cons. Staples
+17.3%
βš—οΈ XLB Materials
+15.8%
🏒 XLRE Real Estate
+9.5%
🏭 XLI Industrials
+6.8%
🏦 XLF Financials
+4.1%
πŸ’‘ XLU Utilities
+2.7%
πŸ› XLY Cons. Discretionary
-1.9%
πŸ“‘ XLC Comm. Services
-13.8%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield 4.98%
2Y Yield 4.61%
2Y–10Y Spread -0.37%
Fed Funds Rate 3.75%
Fear Signal XLP↔XLK -0.434 Defensives hiding
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Generating regime analysis…
SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX β€” YTD 2026
XLK XLU XLF XLI XLC XLV XLE XLRE XLY XLP XLB
XLK 1.00 -0.11 0.16 0.53 0.16 -0.19 -0.27 -0.10 0.45 -0.43 0.26
XLU -0.11 1.00 0.08 0.30 -0.04 0.22 0.04 0.59 0.07 0.40 0.32
XLF 0.16 0.08 1.00 0.46 0.45 0.35 -0.15 0.42 0.50 0.15 0.38
XLI 0.53 0.30 0.46 1.00 0.22 0.21 -0.24 0.37 0.50 0.06 0.63
XLC 0.16 -0.04 0.45 0.22 1.00 0.24 -0.24 0.30 0.61 0.19 0.24
XLV -0.19 0.22 0.35 0.21 0.24 1.00 -0.11 0.47 0.27 0.50 0.35
XLE -0.27 0.04 -0.15 -0.24 -0.24 -0.11 1.00 -0.06 -0.37 0.09 -0.09
XLRE -0.10 0.59 0.42 0.37 0.30 0.47 -0.06 1.00 0.32 0.50 0.43
XLY 0.45 0.07 0.50 0.50 0.61 0.27 -0.37 0.32 1.00 0.17 0.47
XLP -0.43 0.40 0.15 0.06 0.19 0.50 0.09 0.50 0.17 1.00 0.33
XLB 0.26 0.32 0.38 0.63 0.24 0.35 -0.09 0.43 0.47 0.33 1.00
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.165) Tightest pair: XLB (0.626)