MARKET REGIME
US Equity · NASDAQ Sectors · Updated 2026-09-14
⚖ Mixed
Growth vs Defensive spread
⚡ Risk-ON
⚖ Mixed
🛡 Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION — YTD 2026
⚡
XLE
Energy
+44.6%
💻
XLK
Technology
+30.4%
⚗️
XLB
Materials
+11.4%
🏭
XLI
Industrials
+9.7%
🏢
XLRE
Real Estate
+9.2%
🛒
XLP
Cons. Staples
+8.7%
🏥
XLV
Healthcare
+7.2%
🏦
XLF
Financials
+5.1%
💡
XLU
Utilities
-0.5%
📡
XLC
Comm. Services
-3.1%
🛍
XLY
Cons. Discretionary
-4.2%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF
DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield
4.95%
2Y Yield
4.56%
2Y–10Y Spread
-0.39%
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
Fear Signal
XLP↔XLK -0.384 Defensives hiding
AI REGIME READ
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SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX — YTD 2026
| XLU | XLRE | XLB | XLC | XLP | XLE | XLV | XLI | XLK | XLY | XLF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | 1.00 | 0.58 | 0.31 | -0.01 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.30 | -0.10 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| XLRE | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.52 | -0.09 | 0.47 | 0.37 | -0.09 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| XLB | 0.31 | 0.42 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.31 | -0.11 | 0.36 | 0.65 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| XLC | -0.01 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.26 | -0.23 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| XLP | 0.39 | 0.52 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.49 | 0.09 | -0.38 | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| XLE | 0.04 | -0.09 | -0.11 | -0.23 | 0.09 | 1.00 | -0.08 | -0.26 | -0.26 | -0.36 | -0.19 |
| XLV | 0.22 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.49 | -0.08 | 1.00 | 0.26 | -0.16 | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| XLI | 0.30 | 0.37 | 0.65 | 0.26 | 0.09 | -0.26 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| XLK | -0.10 | -0.09 | 0.31 | 0.14 | -0.38 | -0.26 | -0.16 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 0.19 |
| XLY | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.19 | -0.36 | 0.28 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.51 |
| XLF | 0.01 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.11 | -0.19 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 0.19 | 0.51 | 1.00 |
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.17)
Tightest pair: XLY (0.673)