MARKET REGIME

US Equity · NASDAQ Sectors · Updated 2026-09-14
→ Prediction
⚖ Mixed
Growth vs Defensive spread
Growth
+7.6%
Defensive
+6.2%
Spread +1.4pp  ·  threshold −5 to +10pp  ·  XLP↔XLK -0.384 Defensives decoupling
⚡ Risk-ON ⚖ Mixed 🛡 Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION — YTD 2026
XLE Energy
+44.6%
💻 XLK Technology
+30.4%
⚗️ XLB Materials
+11.4%
🏭 XLI Industrials
+9.7%
🏢 XLRE Real Estate
+9.2%
🛒 XLP Cons. Staples
+8.7%
🏥 XLV Healthcare
+7.2%
🏦 XLF Financials
+5.1%
💡 XLU Utilities
-0.5%
📡 XLC Comm. Services
-3.1%
🛍 XLY Cons. Discretionary
-4.2%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield 4.95%
2Y Yield 4.56%
2Y–10Y Spread -0.39%
Fed Funds Rate 3.63%
Fear Signal XLP↔XLK -0.384 Defensives hiding
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Generating regime analysis…
SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX — YTD 2026
XLU XLRE XLB XLC XLP XLE XLV XLI XLK XLY XLF
XLU 1.00 0.58 0.31 -0.01 0.39 0.04 0.22 0.30 -0.10 0.04 0.01
XLRE 0.58 1.00 0.42 0.36 0.52 -0.09 0.47 0.37 -0.09 0.31 0.38
XLB 0.31 0.42 1.00 0.29 0.31 -0.11 0.36 0.65 0.31 0.47 0.38
XLC -0.01 0.36 0.29 1.00 0.26 -0.23 0.29 0.26 0.14 0.67 0.50
XLP 0.39 0.52 0.31 0.26 1.00 0.09 0.49 0.09 -0.38 0.19 0.11
XLE 0.04 -0.09 -0.11 -0.23 0.09 1.00 -0.08 -0.26 -0.26 -0.36 -0.19
XLV 0.22 0.47 0.36 0.29 0.49 -0.08 1.00 0.26 -0.16 0.28 0.34
XLI 0.30 0.37 0.65 0.26 0.09 -0.26 0.26 1.00 0.53 0.50 0.45
XLK -0.10 -0.09 0.31 0.14 -0.38 -0.26 -0.16 0.53 1.00 0.45 0.19
XLY 0.04 0.31 0.47 0.67 0.19 -0.36 0.28 0.50 0.45 1.00 0.51
XLF 0.01 0.38 0.38 0.50 0.11 -0.19 0.34 0.45 0.19 0.51 1.00
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.17) Tightest pair: XLY (0.673)