MARKET REGIME
US Equity Β· NASDAQ Sectors Β· Updated 2026-10-31
π‘ Risk-OFF
Growth vs Defensive spread
β‘ Risk-ON
β Mixed
π‘ Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION β YTD 2026
β‘
XLE
Energy
+56.4%
π»
XLK
Technology
+24.8%
π₯
XLV
Healthcare
+20.4%
π
XLP
Cons. Staples
+17.3%
βοΈ
XLB
Materials
+15.8%
π’
XLRE
Real Estate
+9.5%
π
XLI
Industrials
+6.8%
π¦
XLF
Financials
+4.1%
π‘
XLU
Utilities
+2.7%
π
XLY
Cons. Discretionary
-1.9%
π‘
XLC
Comm. Services
-13.8%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF
DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield
4.98%
2Y Yield
4.61%
2Yβ10Y Spread
-0.37%
Fed Funds Rate
3.75%
Fear Signal
XLPβXLK -0.434 Defensives hiding
AI REGIME READ
β loadingβ¦
Generating regime analysisβ¦
SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX β YTD 2026
| XLK | XLU | XLF | XLI | XLC | XLV | XLE | XLRE | XLY | XLP | XLB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | 1.00 | -0.11 | 0.16 | 0.53 | 0.16 | -0.19 | -0.27 | -0.10 | 0.45 | -0.43 | 0.26 |
| XLU | -0.11 | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.30 | -0.04 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 0.07 | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| XLF | 0.16 | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.35 | -0.15 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| XLI | 0.53 | 0.30 | 0.46 | 1.00 | 0.22 | 0.21 | -0.24 | 0.37 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 0.63 |
| XLC | 0.16 | -0.04 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.24 | -0.24 | 0.30 | 0.61 | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| XLV | -0.19 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 1.00 | -0.11 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| XLE | -0.27 | 0.04 | -0.15 | -0.24 | -0.24 | -0.11 | 1.00 | -0.06 | -0.37 | 0.09 | -0.09 |
| XLRE | -0.10 | 0.59 | 0.42 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.47 | -0.06 | 1.00 | 0.32 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| XLY | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.61 | 0.27 | -0.37 | 0.32 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.47 |
| XLP | -0.43 | 0.40 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.50 | 0.09 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| XLB | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 0.24 | 0.35 | -0.09 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.165)
Tightest pair: XLB (0.626)